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IrelandHogan forecasts further Australian rate rises after November increase
The economist argues that pressure on mortgage holders does not yet mean interest rates are high enough to bring inflation under control.
AustraliaStory of Why this story? One of ABC News (Australia)'s most watched videos since yesterday, with 35,163 views.
ABC News (Australia): The news division of the ABC, Australia's public broadcaster. 2.6M subscribers and 1.7B views.
Multiple rate hikes needed to combat inflation, says Warren Hogan | The Business | ABC NEWS
Things we can learn from the video
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- 0:24Hogan expects a quarter-percentage-point increase, citing the Reserve Bank board's cautious approach.
- 0:55He argues that interest rates remain insufficiently restrictive once inflation is subtracted.
- 2:56His forecast includes further rises early in 2027; a worse scenario puts rates above six per cent.
- 3:50Hogan addresses recession risk and compares the outlook with earlier periods of high interest rates.
- 4:30He calls for lower government spending to reduce pressure on the Reserve Bank.
Australia's fifth interest rate rise of the year may not be the last, according to Judo Bank economic adviser Warren Hogan, who expects further increases in the first half of 2027.
Speaking before Tuesday's decision on Australia's Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), Hogan predicted a quarter-percentage-point increase rather than a larger move. The broadcaster subsequently reported that the Reserve Bank of Australia had raised its cash rate to 4.85 per cent, its highest level since 2008.
The interview on The Business centres on a difficult distinction: borrowing can feel painfully expensive to households without being restrictive enough to slow inflation across the economy.
Hogan's explanation rests on real interest rates, meaning the cash rate minus inflation. He argues that this inflation-adjusted rate remains too low, even while mortgage holders face considerable pressure. In his assessment, unemployment has edged higher but remains low by historical standards, while inflation is not coming down sufficiently.
His central forecast is for at least two more increases early next year, following the November move. He also outlines a worse outcome in which the cash rate reaches between 6 and 6.5 per cent over the next two years. That is a risk scenario, not his main prediction.
The segment opens with Hogan invoking the still-higher rate reached before the global financial crisis. Asked later about recession risk under substantially higher rates, he says a recession would follow.
Hogan's proposed response is not confined to the central bank. He argues that governments should reduce spending to ease demand and take pressure off monetary policy. That would leave less of the inflation-fighting burden with the Reserve Bank and the borrowers affected by its decisions.
An Australian digital bank focused on lending to small and medium-sized businesses. It also offers personal term deposits.
More on Wikipedia ›Judo Bank's chief economic adviser and the founder and managing director of EQ Economics.
More on Wikipedia ›Australia's central bank and the authority responsible for issuing its banknotes.
More on Wikipedia ›Published on Trari
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- Channel
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- Channel views, last 7 days
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- Channel views, pace per day
- 568,685 (on a normal day: 1,189,447)
- Video published
- November 2, 2026
- Video views so far
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- Video views, pace per day
- 38,200
The numbers
The interview drew about 35,000 views since yesterday. It was published before the November rate decision.
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Which bank does economist Warren Hogan advise?
Hogan appears in the interview as Judo Bank's economic adviser.