Briggs sees Republican House loss as overwhelmingly likely in midterms

The Australian election analyst combines Trump's weak approval ratings with a long history of midterm setbacks for the president's party.

Channel: ABC News (Australia) ·

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As Trump's popularity plummets, are the midterms headed for a Democratic 'bluenami'? | ABC NEWS

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0:25Briggs says the president's party has lost an average of 27 House seats at midterms since 1934.
1:05Democrats need a net gain of three House seats to take control, according to Briggs.
1:23Trump asks rally supporters to pretend he is on the ballot.
1:34The Economist/YouGov polling shown puts Trump's net approval at minus 27 percentage points.
2:44Briggs compares Trump's net approval with presidents approaching earlier midterm elections.
3:30Briggs forecasts a likely Republican House loss and says the Senate also leans toward changing control.

Democrats need only three additional seats to take control of the House of Representatives, Casey Briggs says, making even a modest Republican setback consequential in the approaching U.S. midterms.

In an analysis for Australia's Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC News), the chief elections analyst asks whether something larger could be coming: a Democratic "bluenami." His argument rests on the president's unpopularity and the historical difficulties facing the party in the White House.

Briggs displays a chart of House results stretching back to 1934. According to his analysis, the president's party almost always loses seats at midterm elections, with an average loss of 27. That historical average is far larger than the gain he says Democrats need this time.

Trump is not personally standing for election, but the report includes rally footage in which he explicitly links the congressional vote to his presidency. "Please pretend I'm on the ballot, because in a way I am on the ballot," he tells supporters.

Briggs then turns to polling from The Economist and YouGov. The figures he presents put Trump's approval at 34 percent and disapproval at 61 percent in mid-October, leaving a deeply negative net rating. A comparison with presidents approaching earlier midterms places that weakness in historical context.

The report ends with a forecast, not an election result. "His party is overwhelmingly likely to lose control of the House, and the Republicans are leaning towards losing the Senate as well," Briggs says. His conclusion is more emphatic about the House than the Senate.

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