Kornacki puts Democrats' poll lead beside a tougher Senate map
NBC News' final pre-midterm poll favors Democrats nationally, but their Senate path runs through Republican-held seats in Trump country.
Why this story? The video opened at a pace of 551,805 views a day, 53 times a normal first day on this channel (10,404).
Steve Kornacki breaks down final NBC News poll before midterm elections
Steve Kornacki moves from a favorable national poll for Democrats to a less straightforward question: where would the Senate seats come from?
At the big board with Hallie Jackson, NBC News' analyst shows Democrats holding a seven-point advantage on the question of which party should control Congress. He places that lead alongside the network's final polls before the previous two midterms: a tie before 2022 and a narrower Democratic advantage before 2018.
President Trump's approval rating is 40 percent in the poll, below where he stood before his first midterm. "On paper, by this number, Trump enters his second midterm in worse shape than in his first midterm," Kornacki says.
Then comes the map. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats, while also defending states including Minnesota and Michigan that Republicans are targeting. A national polling advantage is not the same thing as securing those individual contests. As Kornacki puts it: "The Democratic path to a majority, if it exists, goes through Trump country."
The brief breakdown has drawn about 436,000 views, an unusually large early audience for an NBC News Short. The network's separate report hearing from Michigan voters after Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers has also drawn an unusually fast start. That report hears from voters planning to support Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in one of the states Kornacki highlights.
Published on Trari
Where next?
- Channel
- NBC News
- Subscribers
- 12,200,000
- Channel views, last 7 days
- 28,872,376
- Channel views, pace per day
- 3,019,413 (on a normal day: 4,976,227)
- Video published
- November 2, 2026
- Video views so far
- 436,104 (less than a day online)
- Video views, pace per day
- 551,805
The numbers
Kornacki's poll breakdown is drawing views far faster than NBC News' usual Short. Its comment section is also substantially busier than a typical first day.
💡 Test your knowledge
Which anchor introduces Kornacki's final pre-midterm poll breakdown?
Hallie Jackson introduces Kornacki at the big board and wraps up the segment.


