Video taking off 11x its usual first day

"We could lose Texas": Cruz's warning anchors LBC's midterm analysis

Simon Marks examines Democratic polling leads, but cautions that Texas has disappointed the party before.

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LBC Story of November 3, 2026Trari Newsroom

Why this story? The video opened at a pace of 518,778 views a day, 10 times a normal first day on this channel (49,356).

Is Texas finally turning against Republicans?

Things we can learn from the video

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0:39Marks reviews polling showing Democratic Senate leads in Texas, Michigan, Maine and Kansas.
4:14Cruz's recorded warning says Republicans could lose Texas, including every statewide race.
5:00The Texas contest pits Talarico against Paxton; Marks discusses demographic change and cautions about past polling errors.
6:12Control of Congress depends on the seat arithmetic, with the timing of clear results still uncertain.
7:18A narrow Democratic House majority could complicate Jeffries' leadership.

A promising poll is not an election result, and Simon Marks makes that distinction explicit in LBC's final-day midterms discussion. The question is whether Democrat James Talarico can defeat Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, a state where Democratic hopes have repeatedly run ahead of the outcome.

The most striking warning comes from a Republican. In a podcast excerpt played during the segment, Ted Cruz says: "Texas is excruciatingly close. Understand, we could lose Texas." He goes further, warning that Republicans could lose every statewide race.

Marks sets that alarm alongside a New York Times/Siena College poll showing Democratic leads in Senate contests including Texas, Michigan, Maine and Kansas. He points to changing demographics in Texas, while keeping a firm qualification attached: "So this poll at least suggests it ain't even going to be close, but polls have been wrong here before."

The upload, titled "Is Texas finally turning against Republicans?", reached roughly 390,000 views in 14 hours, already far beyond LBC's usual full first day for a regular video. A separate segment about Haley Stevens endorsing Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan also drew an unusually large early audience.

The Texas discussion eventually widens into the practical consequences for Congress: the seats needed to control each chamber, when results might become clear, and the constraints Hakeem Jeffries could face leading a narrow Democratic House majority.