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Trump-won states complicate Democrats' Senate path, WSJ explains

Aaron Zitner's pre-election analysis examines the historical hurdle beyond North Carolina and Maine, rather than calling the results.

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The Wall Street Journal Story of November 4, 2026Trari Newsroom

Why this story? One of The Wall Street Journal's most watched videos since yesterday, with 42,103 views.

Why Democrats Face a Tough Test to Win the Senate

Winning North Carolina and Maine would still leave Democrats short. That is the central problem in The Wall Street Journal's pre-election Senate analysis: the party's route to a majority also runs through states Donald Trump carried comfortably.

WSJ polling editor Aaron Zitner explains that Democrats need a net gain of four seats. He identifies North Carolina as a likely pickup and Maine, where Republican Susan Collins is defending her seat, as a competitive toss-up.

"After that, it gets hard," Zitner says.

His remaining battleground list includes Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Texas and Alaska, all states Trump won by double-digit margins. Looking back at recent midterms, Zitner shows how rarely Senate candidates have won in states that rejected their party so decisively in the preceding presidential election. A favorable national mood, his analysis suggests, still has to translate into victories on difficult individual state maps.

Published on Election Day, "Why Democrats Face a Tough Test to Win the Senate" is an explanation of that challenge, not a results update. It drew about 42,000 views since yesterday.

Zitner also looks beyond congressional control: Democratic victories in places such as Iowa or Ohio, he argues, could expand the party's possibilities in the next presidential election.

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