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IrelandYoung voters' weaker party ties matter in midterms, Galdieri says
The politics professor explains why younger voters may reconsider Trump, then sets out what each party would count as a successful election night.
Why this story? One of CBC News's most watched videos since yesterday, with 74,993 views.
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What would a U.S. midterms win look like for Democrats and Republicans? | Hanomansing Live
Things we can learn from the video
Press to jump
- 1:00Galdieri defines a good Democratic night as taking the House with a sizable margin; Senate control would strengthen it.
- 1:34Republicans' best-case comparison is Democrats' relatively resilient performance in the closely divided 2022 elections.
- 2:49Young voters have less entrenched partisan habits, making them more willing to reconsider earlier choices.
- 3:50Citing Trump's response to defeat in 2020, Galdieri expects legal challenges in contested races.
- 4:50The interview considers how congressional outcomes could affect U.S.-Canada relations, including trade tariffs.
Young voters have had less time to develop fixed political loyalties. That makes them more willing to reconsider a previous vote when the results do not meet their expectations, politics professor Chris Galdieri says in a U.S. midterm election interview.
Speaking to CBC News, the news service of the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation in Canada, the Saint Anselm College professor responds to polling trends suggesting young men are moving away from President Donald Trump. His explanation centers on political habits rather than a permanent shift toward either party.
"I think one thing you have to remember about young voters is they don't tend to have strong political habits," he says. The implication is that winning their support at one election does not necessarily secure it for the next.
The interview, titled "What would a U.S. midterms win look like for Democrats and Republicans? | Hanomansing Live", also distinguishes between a Democratic breakthrough and a Republican result that limits the damage.
"A good night for Democrats would be winning control of the House of Representatives with a sizable margin," Galdieri says. Taking the Senate as well would mark a stronger outcome. The report says Democrats need net gains of three House seats and four Senate seats to take control from Republicans.
For Republicans, Galdieri points to the Democrats' experience in 2022 as the favorable comparison: a closely divided outcome rather than the sweeping defeat an opposing party might hope for. He sees signs of Democratic momentum, but discusses the size of a possible wave as an open question.
Asked whether Trump would respect the results, Galdieri cites the president's response to his 2020 defeat and expects legal challenges in contested races. The closing discussion brings the stakes back to Canada, considering how the balance in Congress could affect relations with Washington, particularly over trade tariffs.
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At which college does politics professor Chris Galdieri teach?
The interview identifies Galdieri as a politics professor at Saint Anselm College.