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Texas and Kansas are changing, Wasserman says of Senate toss-ups

The election analyst links Republican vulnerabilities to demographic shifts, candidate weaknesses and fundraising gaps in a broader midterm map.

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The toss-up races that could determine the U.S. midterms | Power & Politics

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0:29Cook's Senate toss-ups are Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas.
1:05Few Republican seats in closely divided states force Democrats to seek gains in more Republican-leaning territory.
2:56Third-party dynamics and Susan Collins' messaging feature in the Alaska and Maine discussion.
5:04Wasserman links competitiveness in Texas and Kansas to demographic change, candidate weaknesses and fundraising disparities.
7:34Wasserman argues Ramaswamy's Ohio advertising could affect other Republican candidates on the ballot.
9:00The House analysis identifies potential Democratic gains in open seats and districts in Iowa, Texas and New York.

Texas and Kansas are not the reliably Republican terrain their political reputations suggest, David Wasserman argues in an interview about the Senate contests that could decide control of Congress.

Speaking to David Cochrane on Canada's Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) News, the Cook Political Report elections analyst points to demographic change, candidate weaknesses and major fundraising disparities as reasons those states have become competitive.

"Look, both Kansas and Texas are changing," Wasserman says, rejecting the idea that their older political identities fully explain the electorate facing candidates today.

The Power & Politics segment identifies seven Senate toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Wasserman explains that Democrats have had to target states Donald Trump won comfortably because relatively few Republican seats on the ballot are in genuinely closely divided states.

He calls Trump the principal source of Republican vulnerability, citing low approval in Cook's tracker. That is Wasserman's assessment of the political environment, not a prediction that every competitive race will move the same way.

The state-by-state discussion examines third-party candidates who could affect outcomes in Alaska and Maine, along with Maine Republican Senator Susan Collins' campaign messaging. In Ohio, Wasserman considers whether Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy's advertising could hurt other Republicans appearing farther down the ballot. He characterizes one ad as an attempt to retaliate against attacks rather than persuade voters.

Senate arithmetic remains central: Wasserman explains that Democrats need 51 seats for control because Vice President JD Vance can break a tie if the chamber divides evenly.

The interview closes by widening the map to the House of Representatives. Wasserman identifies opportunities for Democratic gains in open seats and competitive districts in Iowa, Texas and New York, distinguishing those local openings from the national mood surrounding the president.