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IrelandEl Niño's peak still leaves room for November downpours
WeatherWatchTV's Philip Duncan expects an unsettled spring pattern to persist across New Zealand and Australia, despite climate drivers favouring dryness in some areas.
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Story of Why this story? One of the most watched videos since yesterday, with 62,835 views.
ClimateWatch: NOVEMBER outlook, El Niño & IOD
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- 1:40Duncan places El Niño's forecast peak in November and December, followed by a decline into autumn 2027.
- 3:13A positive Indian Ocean Dipole may encourage Australian drying, but Duncan expects its influence to fade by December's end.
- 5:01Sea-temperature maps show equatorial warmth and a persistent Tasman Sea marine heatwave.
- 7:16Weekly pressure charts show high-pressure blocks interrupted by occasional lows through the first three weeks of November.
- 10:09Soil-moisture maps show how wet or dry conditions already are across New Zealand and Australia.
- 11:27Rainfall projections cover the next fifteen days across New Zealand, Australia and the South Pacific islands.
Drying soils in parts of New Zealand, too much rain in Victoria, and intense heat over Australia's interior: Philip Duncan's November outlook has little room for a single weather label.
In WeatherWatchTV's "ClimateWatch: NOVEMBER outlook, El Niño & IOD", the forecaster explains why a strengthening dry-weather influence can coexist with downpours. The update has drawn about 63,000 views since yesterday.
Duncan puts El Niño's forecast peak in November and December, but stresses that it is only part of what shapes weather across New Zealand and Australia. Alongside it, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may encourage further drying in some Australian locations, particularly inland. He expects that influence to be weak and short-lived, declining by the end of December.
That does not clear the rain maps. The outlook anticipates continued downpours across southern and eastern Australia and New Zealand's West Coast, while some North Island locations dry out quickly. Duncan also points to a persistent marine heatwave in the Tasman Sea.
His central message is continuity rather than a dramatic November reset: cold fronts and bursts of windier westerlies, with quieter or drier spells between them. This is an explanation of the forces shaping the month, not a forecast for a particular picnic or paddock.
The practical detail comes later, as Duncan moves from climate indices to weekly pressure charts, soil moisture and regional rainfall projections. At the end, he stops talking altogether: an animated map lets viewers watch highs, lows and fronts move across the region.
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- Channel
- WeatherWatchTV
- Subscribers
- 146,000 ▲ 1,000 this week
- Channel views, last 7 days
- 467,070
- Channel views, pace per day
- 51,692 (on a normal day: 68,524)
- Video published
- November 2, 2026
- Video views so far
- 70,138 (less than a day online)
- Video views, pace per day
- 62,816
The numbers
The November ClimateWatch update drew about 63,000 views since yesterday. Its first-day comment section was also more than twice as busy as usual.
💡 Test your knowledge
What does SAM stand for in Duncan's climate outlook?
SAM is the Southern Annular Mode, one of the climate drivers Duncan examines.