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IrelandTom Ellsworth's final forecast gives Democrats both chambers
The Valuetainment segment draws an unusually large audience as Ellsworth builds his election-day calls around polling, betting markets and early ballots.
Valuetainment Short Clips
Story of Why this story? The video opened at a pace of 168,312 views a day, 15 times a normal first day on this channel (11,508).
Election Day 2026: Final Predictions for the House and Senate
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- 2:17Ellsworth reviews polling in close Senate contests, including Texas, Nebraska, South Carolina, Kansas and Iowa.
- 5:35He argues that consistent Democratic generic-ballot leads offer a useful measure of the national mood.
- 7:04Kalshi market odds provide another perspective on which party will control each chamber.
- 8:28Early ballots are broken down by party registration and how voters returned them.
- 10:19His final projections favor Democrats for the House, Senate and a majority of governorships.
Tom Ellsworth leaves little room for doubt in his House forecast: "I think it's 100% chance that the Democrats will control the House..."
That prediction comes near the end of "Election Day 2026: Final Predictions for the House and Senate," a Valuetainment analysis segment posted on Valuetainment Short Clips. Recorded before the results, it also favors Democrats for Senate control and a majority of governorships. These are Ellsworth's election-morning calls, not declarations of winners.
The upload reached about 116,000 views in its first half-day, already well beyond the clips channel's usual full-day audience for regular videos.
Ellsworth, known as the Biz Doc, works through close Senate contests including Texas, Nebraska and Michigan before turning to the national picture. His central argument is that the generic ballot, which asks voters which party they prefer for Congress, offers a useful reading of America's political mood. He points to consistent Democratic leads across the surveys he presents.
He then considers Kalshi's market odds and early voting by party registration and ballot-return method. The title's promised final calls arrive after those separate pieces of evidence, rather than at the start.
The channel has since moved from forecasts to election-night reactions, including a separate Valuetainment panel clip reporting Jon Ossoff's reelection in Georgia.
A Democrat who has served as Georgia’s senior U.S. senator since 2021.
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- Channel
- Valuetainment Short Clips
- Subscribers
- 777,000 ▲ 1,000 this week
- Channel views, last 7 days
- 1,124,515
- Channel views, pace per day
- 138,136 (on a normal day: 206,519)
- Video published
- November 3, 2026
- Video views so far
- 116,361 (less than a day online)
- Video views, pace per day
- 168,312
The numbers
The forecast passed the channel's usual full-day views within its first half-day. Comments also exceeded the usual first-day total.
💡 Test your knowledge
What nickname does Tom Ellsworth use on Valuetainment?
Ellsworth introduces and signs off on the segment as the Biz Doc.