Arab turnout could decide Israel's coalition arithmetic, pollster says

Statnet's Yousef Makladeh sees neither Netanyahu nor the Eisenkot-led opposition assured of a governing majority.

Channel: Sky News Arabia Arabic channel ·

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4:00Makladeh outlines projected seats for Netanyahu's camp, Eisenkot's camp and Arab parties.
6:22Neither camp has an assured majority; Arab turnout could alter the parliamentary balance.
7:05Israelis living abroad enter the discussion of turnout and the distribution of political strength.
10:58Ultra-Orthodox support for Netanyahu is examined alongside the dispute over military conscription.
12:42Makladeh reports declining Likud seat projections in his institute's polling over the preceding two weeks.
17:30The closing exchange considers the influence of Netanyahu's far-right partners.

Winning seats and finding a government are different challenges in Israel's election, according to pollster Yousef Makladeh. His assessment is that neither Benjamin Netanyahu's camp nor the opposition grouping led by Gadi Eisenkot has a clear path to the majority needed to govern without additional support.

Speaking from Tel Aviv to United Arab Emirates-based Sky News Arabia, the director of the Statnet polling institute describes a closely contested election in which turnout among Arab citizens of Israel could be decisive. The interview aired on October 26, with the broadcaster saying polling stations would open the following day.

The key threshold is 61 seats in the Knesset, Israel's parliament. Makladeh explains that the distribution of seats among Netanyahu's supporters, his opponents and Arab parties leaves coalition-building unresolved. Arab participation matters not simply as a turnout statistic, but because it can change the parliamentary balance on which a government depends.

He also identifies movement within the contest: his institute's polling over the preceding two weeks shows Netanyahu's Likud losing ground while former prime minister Naftali Bennett gains seats. Those shifts are polling findings, not election results. Eisenkot, a former military chief, and fellow opposition figure Yair Lapid feature in the report's account of efforts to replace Netanyahu.

Another uncertainty concerns ultra-Orthodox voters. Makladeh describes their strong support for Netanyahu's camp while examining how the dispute over military conscription could affect that support. The discussion also considers Israelis living abroad and their influence on participation.

The interview places these electoral calculations against the aftermath of October 7, the wars involving Gaza and Iran, Donald Trump's positions and Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners. Makladeh's central distinction remains between attracting votes and assembling enough parliamentary backing to form the next government.