Refinery squeeze complicates Britain's interest-rate outlook
Sky News's Ed Conway explains why falling crude prices offer only part of the answer after the Bank of England raises rates.
Why this story? The video opened at a pace of 318,381 views a day, 12 times a normal first day on this channel (26,104).
Interest rate rise: What does the Bank do next?
Things we can learn from the video
Press to jump
- 0:26Bank Rate rises from 3.75% to 4%; Conway compares its path with mortgage and savings rates.
- 2:02The inflation forecast peaks at 4.9% before falling, above the Bank's 2% target.
- 4:52Refinery pressures affect petrol, diesel and jet fuel prices beyond changes in the cost of crude oil.
- 5:44Conway shows a potential January energy price-cap increase of 24%, reaching £2,150.
- 6:52Real post-tax household income projections turn negative, although the following food inflation forecast is less severe than feared.
- 9:34Crude oil has fallen further than the Bank forecast, potentially easing inflation pressure and complicating the next rate decision.
Crude oil can get cheaper without petrol and diesel becoming cheap to produce. That distinction sits at the heart of Ed Conway's explanation of Britain's renewed inflation problem, as the Bank of England raises its base rate to 4%.
In "Interest rate rise: What does the Bank do next?", Sky News's economics and data editor moves beyond mortgages to the refineries that turn oil into usable fuel. He examines "crack spreads", the gap between crude prices and the prices of refined products. Pressure at that stage matters for diesel, petrol and jet fuel, even when the oil market itself eases.
The report has drawn roughly 170,000 views in nine hours, an unusually fast start for a regular Sky News upload. Its household stakes are plain: Conway shows a possible energy price-cap increase of nearly a quarter in January, alongside projections of falling real post-tax household income. His chart calls that squeeze "The Feelbad Factor".
There are counterweights to the gloomy forecasts. Food price inflation has not risen as sharply as feared, and Conway highlights the Bank's assessment that AI is contributing to economic growth.
The title's question about further rate rises gets a conditional answer rather than a firm prediction. Near the end, Conway returns to crude oil, showing that its price has fallen further than the Bank's forecasts anticipated. That could soften the inflation outlook, but his earlier refinery breakdown explains why the price of a barrel is not the whole household-bills story.
The United Kingdom's central bank, founded in 1694. It also serves as a banker to the UK government.
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Where next?
- Channel
- Sky News
- Subscribers
- 9,390,000
- Channel views, last 7 days
- 18,399,815
- Channel views, pace per day
- 3,159,387 (on a normal day: 2,420,680)
- Video published
- November 5, 2026
- Video views so far
- 169,227 (less than a day online)
- Video views, pace per day
- 318,381
The numbers
Conway's explainer is drawing views much faster than Sky News's usual regular upload. The figures below show its start alongside the channel's wider activity.
💡 Test your knowledge
What does CPI stand for in inflation reporting?
The Consumer Prices Index measures changes in the prices of a basket of consumer goods and services.


