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Kentucky and Montana offer early tests of a Democratic wave

CNN's election preview identifies races to watch while Doug Sosnik explains why national momentum may not translate into Senate gains.

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CNN Story of November 2, 2026Trari Newsroom

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Why this story? One of CNN's most watched videos since yesterday, with 707,288 views.

Blue wave? Early clues, surprise races & midterm cross currents

Things we can learn from the video

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0:00Kentucky's early poll closures make its 6th District an opening test of the election's direction.
1:00Zeleny identifies Montana's 1st District as a test of whether Democrats can win in Republican areas.
6:04Tapper's panel selects surprise contests to watch, including Ohio Senate, Iowa Senate and Alabama's 2nd District.
8:42Smerconish presents historical midterm trends, presidential approval and inflation as indicators favoring Democrats.
14:15Sosnik argues that nationalized politics complicates Democratic efforts to flip Senate seats in Republican-leaning states.

Kentucky's 6th Congressional District gets the first look on CNN's election map for a practical reason: its polls close early. David Chalian and Manu Raju use it as a starting point for assessing whether Tuesday's results will match the favorable national environment CNN describes for Democrats.

The compilation moves beyond the most closely watched Senate contests to places where Democratic gains would signal a broader shift. Jeff Zeleny highlights Montana's 1st District and candidate Sam Forstag, arguing that a wave would require victories in Republican territory.

"Now, look, if there is going to be a wave, if there is going to be this big Democratic boomlet, they're going to have to win in some Republican areas," Zeleny says.

South Carolina also features, including the Senate bid of Democrat Annie Andrews. On Jake Tapper's panel, Republican strategist Kristen Soltis Anderson singles out Ohio, where former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown is seeking a return. Karen Finney points to Shomari Figures in Alabama's 2nd District.

But the video's final discussion offers a reason not to read national polling as a map of likely victories. Michael Smerconish presents historical midterm patterns, presidential approval and inflation as indicators favoring Democrats. Former Clinton adviser Doug Sosnik argues that increasingly nationalized politics makes it harder for Democrats to flip Senate seats in Republican-leaning states, even with a favorable political climate.

"Whereas when I was starting out in politics there was a very famous saying, all politics is local, now all politics is national," Sosnik says. His distinction is between a strong national showing and winning the particular states needed to change Senate control.

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