Keupp urges stronger European support as Ukraine faces summit exclusion

ZDF's analysis separates a local ceasefire in Oleshky from broader peace prospects and examines how the U.S. midterms could affect military aid.

Channel: ZDFheute Nachrichten ·

GermanyStory of October 30, 2026Trari Newsroom

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Midterms, möglicher Gipfel ohne Kiew, Lage in Oleschky: Analyse mit Marcus M. Keupp | ZDFheute live

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1:15Keupp characterizes the local ceasefire and reported diesel deal as Russian influence operations, not evidence of broader peace.
4:12Congressional spending decisions could affect Ukraine's military aid after the U.S. midterms, Keupp explains.
9:42Hassanzadeh reports that Oleshky's ceasefire is holding and describes efforts to evacuate residents.
18:50The discussion examines possible leaders' meetings and preparations for working-level negotiations in Abu Dhabi.
22:15Keupp argues against a Yalta-style summit that treats modern Russia as equivalent to the Soviet superpower.
32:43Keupp calls for specialized European defense capabilities and expanded arms production while warning about Russian electoral interference.

A possible Trump-Putin-Xi summit without Ukraine would give Russia the wrong diplomatic standing, military economist Marcus M. Keupp argues, urging Europeans to concentrate instead on strengthening Ukraine's defenses.

Germany's ZDFheute Nachrichten, the news service of public broadcaster Zweites Deutsches Fernsehen, brings together Keupp and its correspondents to examine the proposed meeting, a local ceasefire and the approaching U.S. congressional elections. Sara Bildau hosts the discussion.

According to the report, Vladimir Putin proposed a meeting with Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping that could take place in China in November. Trump has expressed openness, but Xi has not confirmed participation, and Ukraine would not be included under the proposal described. The broadcast also discusses preparations for working-level talks in Abu Dhabi without European participation. These are diplomatic possibilities, not an agreed leaders' summit.

Keupp, a military economist at ETH Zurich's Military Academy, rejects treating negotiations as a great-power gathering modeled on Yalta. He argues that modern Russia lacks the Soviet Union's economic weight and that such staging would inflate Moscow's position.

The immediate humanitarian development is in Russian-occupied Oleshky, in southern Ukraine. Reporting from Kyiv, Dara Hassanzadeh says the local ceasefire is holding, with neither side reporting a violation, and describes evacuation efforts led by Ukrainian negotiator Dmytro Lubinets. The broadcaster credits U.S. first lady Melania Trump with mediating the pause.

Keupp cautions that this narrowly localized ceasefire does not represent a wider halt to Russia's war. Hassanzadeh reports continued attacks elsewhere, including Dnipro, and describes Ukrainian forces' use of unmanned ground vehicles on the Donbas front. Russia correspondent Sebastian Ehm says he sees no serious willingness in the Kremlin to negotiate peace.

Turning to the midterms, Keupp explains that congressional appropriations could influence future U.S. military assistance. The report says Democrats want to put Ukraine aid higher on the agenda if they gain power in Congress; it leaves open how far that would change Trump's approach.

For Europe, Keupp advocates stronger Ukrainian defenses, specialized military capabilities and expanded arms production. He also warns about Russian efforts to destabilize European elections and argues that preventing a Ukrainian capitulation is central to avoiding much larger civilian displacement.

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