Israel's election may change its government, not its Gaza policy
Secunder Kermani's analysis separates the opposition's exit-poll advantage from the difficulty of forming a coalition and the limits of a possible policy shift.
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Israel election: Where next after the exit polls? | Prime Time
Things we can learn from the video
Press to jump
- 0:53Voters offer contrasting assessments of Netanyahu and the importance of the election.
- 1:29Netanyahu's campaign material emphasizes security threats and fears about Iran's nuclear program.
- 3:24Kermani says Eisenkot's alliance leads the exit polls, but no clear winner has emerged.
- 6:05Arab turnout and the positioning of Mansour Abbas's Ra'am party feature in the coalition analysis.
- 8:02Netanyahu would remain in power while negotiations continued if no governing agreement emerged.
- 9:21Kermani sees no significant difference between the leading alternatives in their approach to Gaza.
Replacing Benjamin Netanyahu would not necessarily bring a substantially different approach to Gaza, foreign correspondent Secunder Kermani says in an election-night interview with Ireland's public broadcaster RTÉ News.
Speaking from Jerusalem on Prime Time, the Channel 4 News correspondent describes exit polls that put the alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu's bloc, but leave no clear winner. He interprets the projections as a rejection of Netanyahu's coalition government, not a settled decision about who can replace it.
The distinction matters because an electoral lead does not itself produce a governing majority. Kermani examines the performance of Arab political parties, turnout among Arab citizens and the positioning of Mansour Abbas's Ra'am party as potential factors in the negotiations ahead.
If those negotiations reach a deadlock, the immediate consequence would be continuity at the top. "Netanyahu would continue in power whilst negotiations continue," Kermani explains.
Paul Murphy's preceding report shows how sharply voters differ over Netanyahu. One interviewee backs him as the best person for the job; another describes the election as a critical decision about the country's direction. Campaign material emphasizes security threats and fears about Iran's nuclear program, while Murphy also examines Eisenkot, the former Israeli military chief challenging the prime minister.
The broadcast then looks beyond the coalition arithmetic to the international implications. A different government could change Israel's diplomatic relationships, but Kermani cautions against assuming that a change of leadership would mean a fundamental break over Gaza: "When it comes to Gaza, really no significant difference in the kind of approach."
Leader of Israel's Yashar party and Netanyahu's main challenger in the 2026 election. He headed the Israeli military from 2015 to 2019.
More on Wikipedia ›Leader of Ra'am and a member of Israel's parliament representing the party.
More on Wikipedia ›An Islamist and conservative political party in Israel led by Mansour Abbas. It joined Israel's governing coalition in 2021.
More on Wikipedia ›Published on Trari
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Which party does Mansour Abbas lead?
Abbas leads Ra'am, whose positioning features in the broadcast's coalition discussion.