Trump's economic ratings weaken ahead of Congress vote, analysis finds
Jessica Taylor identifies rising costs and eroding Latino support as warning signs for Republicans, while outlining what Democratic control could mean.
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These charts show US politics is about to change dramatically
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- 0:00A CNN poll puts Trump's approval at 32%, with 67% disapproving.
- 0:58Taylor uses past presidential setbacks to explain why midterms often become referendums on the White House.
- 2:04Economic approval has weakened; the report later connects declining Latino support to immigration policies and inflation.
- 3:42Democrats need net gains of three House seats and four Senate seats, according to the report.
- 4:37Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Texas and Kansas feature as possible Democratic Senate opportunities.
- 6:05Democratic control could bring legislative obstruction, congressional investigations and, Taylor says, potentially another impeachment.
The economy, long presented as Donald Trump's political strength, has become a vulnerability in the polling examined by Britain's ITV News ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
Jessica Taylor, Senate and Governors Editor at The Cook Political Report, points to a CNN poll putting the president's approval at 32%, with roughly two-thirds disapproving. The report also shows approval of his economic performance falling to a similarly low level.
In "These charts show US politics is about to change dramatically," Taylor connects those ratings to the possibility of Democrats taking control of one or both chambers of Congress. She identifies high living costs, gasoline prices and involvement in foreign conflicts as sources of voter discontent. The analysis also highlights weakening support among Hispanic and Latino voters, linking it to inflation and Trump's immigration policies.
"Midterm elections are fundamentally a referendum on the current president," Taylor says. Archival footage recalls setbacks suffered by George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Trump during his first term, placing the approaching vote in a longer pattern of presidents facing a dissatisfied electorate midway through their tenure.
The report says Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to reclaim the chambers. Its Senate map extends into traditionally Republican territory, identifying Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Texas and Kansas as possible opportunities. Those are potential openings, not declared outcomes: the report presents a polling-based scenario rather than a settled forecast.
Taylor also cautions against reading dissatisfaction as enthusiasm for Democrats. "Think of this election as a pox on both houses," she says.
The stakes extend beyond election night. In Taylor's assessment, Democratic control could obstruct Trump's legislative agenda and bring congressional investigations during his final two years in office. "And a third impeachment isn't off the table, either," she adds, describing a possibility rather than an announced plan.
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Which political analysis publication does Jessica Taylor represent?
Taylor is identified as The Cook Political Report's Senate and Governors Editor.