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Iran's warning aims beyond Merz, Gerges tells DW

The Middle East scholar interprets Tehran's language as deterrence against the US and Israel, while sanctions and nuclear disagreements obstruct diplomacy.

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DW News Story of November 1, 2026Trari Newsroom

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How serious are Iran's new threats of retaliation? | DW News

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0:15Merz says Europe's energy costs have surged and argues that military action alone cannot resolve the conflict.
0:50DW presents Araghchi's warning of severe retaliation against further hostile moves.
1:21Gerges interprets Iran's warning as broader deterrence against the US and Israel, rather than a direct threat to Merz.
3:40Gerges links Tehran's language to deterring possible military action after the US midterm elections.
5:16Sanctions and nuclear disagreements obstruct diplomacy, Gerges says, while a Vance letter offers a limited opening.

Iran's foreign minister was responding to Friedrich Merz, but the German chancellor was not necessarily the intended target of his warning. That is Fawaz Gerges's reading of the exchange in an interview with DW News.

The London School of Economics professor argues that Tehran is signaling its willingness to take greater risks to deter further US and Israeli attacks. His interpretation adds a distinction to the latest threats: a response directed at a European leader can carry a broader military message.

DW's report begins with Merz appealing for an end to the conflict. He says higher energy prices have already cost Europe more than €100 billion and argues that military action alone cannot resolve the war.

The broadcaster then shows a response from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, warning of an "earth-shattering blow" against hostile moves and declaring that "red lines are a thing of the past."

Anchor Ben Fajzullin also cites Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's warning of an immediate, unrestricted response to threats. Gerges interprets this language as an attempt to maximize deterrence ahead of possible further military action after the US midterm elections, not as evidence that a new round has been decided.

The interview closes on negotiations in Doha. Gerges identifies sanctions and nuclear issues as major obstacles, while pointing to a personal letter from US Vice President JD Vance as a limited diplomatic opening.