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A Kansas upset could signal Senate control, Enten argues

His midterm roundup challenges assumptions about polling errors and examines Trump's weak gas-price approval alongside a more favorable House map for Democrats.

Channel: CNN ·

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Flipping Kansas, Trump's gas approval tanks & more | Enten roundup

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0:00Enten argues that a Democratic Senate victory in Kansas would signal a broader path to controlling the chamber.
3:42Historical polling errors, he says, do not show a consistent long-term bias against Republicans.
6:50Registered-voter and likely-voter surveys describe different electorates, complicating comparisons of party support.
12:43Trump's gas-price net approval reaches minus 49 points in Enten's presentation, which he links to Democratic opportunities.
15:21Enten highlights 223 House seats at least leaning Democratic, while arguing that the party could gain more.
18:21Michigan polling leads Enten to conclude that attitudes toward Israel and AIPAC may benefit El-Sayed over Rogers.

Kansas would mean more than another Senate seat for Democrats, Harry Enten argues. A victory in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932 would suggest a national environment strong enough to put control of the chamber within their reach.

That is a conditional argument, not a declaration that Kansas will flip. In a compilation from the United States' Cable News Network (CNN), Enten and anchor Erin Burnett examine the state as a potential Democratic pickup with less than a week until the November 3 midterms.

The broader question running through the broadcast is whether encouraging Democratic indicators will survive contact with election results. Enten challenges the assumption that polls invariably underestimate Republicans. Reviewing historical polling averages, he says there is no consistent long-term bias against the party and notes that Democrats have often outperformed their final polling averages in midterm elections.

A separate exchange with John Berman examines the distinction between registered-voter polls and likely-voter polls. Those surveys describe different electorates: being registered does not necessarily mean someone will cast a ballot. The compilation also compares Barack Obama's positive net favorability with Trump's negative rating, a measure of personal regard rather than a forecast of congressional results.

On household costs, Enten presents Trump's net approval for handling gas prices at minus 49 percentage points, describing it as the worst such pre-midterm rating this century. He argues that dissatisfaction over energy costs is benefiting Democrats in competitive House districts.

The House ratings offer another encouraging sign for Democrats in his account: 223 seats at least lean toward the party, enough for a majority if those assessments translate into victories. "The 223 is the floor, not the ceiling," Enten says. It remains an assessment of the map, not seats already won.

The closing segment turns to Michigan's Senate contest between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. Citing Washington Post-Schar School polling, Enten says a majority of Michigan voters favor reducing or ending military aid to Israel. He also presents negative ratings for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the pro-Israel lobbying group known as AIPAC. His conclusion is that these attitudes may help El-Sayed rather than Rogers, whom anchor Pamela Brown identifies as receiving AIPAC's financial support.