Israel's election polls face scrutiny over Likud forecasts

A television report moves from missed predictions to disputed claims that polling shapes public opinion rather than simply measuring it.

Channel: i24NEWS Hebrew Hebrew channel ·

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אמת או סקר? המספרים של האולפנים התנפצו מול תוצאות האמת של הבחירות

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1:05Election-night projections from four channels are compared with Likud's election result.
2:08Tzuriel Sharon and Attila Shumfalvi examine polling methods and the influence of wishful thinking.
5:32The report presents criticism of question wording in polls about war, hostage agreements and US relations.
8:36Ariel Kahana argues that polls shape public opinion before they reflect it.
10:07Netanyahu accuses broadcasters of using false polling to discourage his supporters from voting.
12:54Moriah Asraf says pollsters and studio journalists failed to read the public mood correctly.

Did Israeli television polls misread voters, or did the assumptions of the people interpreting them also play a part? A post-election report from Israel's i24NEWS Hebrew builds its argument around the gap between forecasts for Likud, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing party, and its election result.

The report compares election-night projections from its own channel and Channels 14, 12 and 13 with Likud's result. Its description also challenges earlier forecasts that put the party far below its eventual showing. Polling methods and wishful thinking are both raised as explanations by commentators Tzuriel Sharon and Attila Shumfalvi.

The video is titled "אמת או סקר? המספרים של האולפנים התנפצו מול תוצאות האמת של הבחירות", meaning "Truth or poll? TV studios' numbers shattered by actual election results". Broadcast on Neve Dromi's Friday program, it develops into a broader critique of how television news understands the Israeli public.

Journalists Ben-Dror Yemini and Shirit Avitan Cohen discuss what they describe as media figures living inside a bubble. The report then examines polling on the war, hostage agreements and relations with the United States, presenting criticism that the wording of questions can steer responses.

Journalist Ariel Kahana argues that polls function first as instruments for shaping public opinion, before reflecting it. That argument is distinct from the report's opening comparison of forecasts and results: it concerns the purpose and influence of polling, not just its accuracy.

The report also assembles archival remarks about media opposition to Netanyahu and a speech in which he accuses broadcasters of knowingly using false polls to discourage his supporters from voting. Those are Netanyahu's accusations, rather than an established explanation for the forecasting gaps.

Near the end, the focus returns to the studios themselves. Journalist Moriah Asraf says neither the pollsters nor the journalists in the studio correctly sensed the public mood.