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CNN poll puts Talarico six points ahead of Paxton in Texas

Harry Enten calls the result historically strong for a Texas Democrat, while CNN's panel examines ticket splitting and whether polling support will translate into votes.

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CNN Story of October 30, 2026Trari Newsroom

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'This is earth-shattering': Enten & panel unpack new CNN Texas polls

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0:00CNN's Texas Senate poll puts James Talarico at 49% and Ken Paxton at 43%.
1:18Enten highlights Paxton's negative popularity rating and Trump's negative approval rating in Texas.
3:20Ed Lavandera reports from Dallas on voter enthusiasm and shifting support among Latino voters.
6:06The panel examines polling reliability, ticket splitting and voters' motivations.
12:36Kendall Scudder discusses Democratic investment and turnout; at 17:26, he commits to accepting certified results.

James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in CNN's new Texas Senate poll, putting an unusually competitive contest at the center of the network's election coverage. The poll shows the Democrat at 49% and the Republican at 43%.

Harry Enten, CNN's chief data analyst, describes it as the strongest polling for a Democratic Senate candidate in Texas since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. He also points to Paxton's deeply negative popularity rating and President Donald Trump's negative approval rating in the state as signs of Republican vulnerability.

Talarico, a Texas state representative, is running against Paxton, the state's attorney general. CNN's report moves from the polling graphics to Ed Lavandera in Dallas, where voter enthusiasm and shifting Latino support form part of the discussion. Campaign footage captures Paxton warning about the national consequences of losing Texas, while Talarico pitches a coalition of Democrats, Republicans and independents.

The Senate contest is not the only close result presented: CNN's governor poll shows Republican Greg Abbott narrowly ahead of Democrat Gina Hinojosa. The panel considers polling reliability and ticket splitting, the possibility that voters will choose candidates from different parties for different offices.

Texas Democratic Party chair Kendall Scudder offers a measured response rather than declaring a breakthrough secured. "Democrats didn't lose Texas overnight. I don't think we're going to win it overnight," he tells Pamela Brown. His interview focuses on campaign investment and turnout, and ends with a commitment to accept certified election results regardless of the outcome.