Donalds and Moody hold narrow leads in final St. Pete poll

UCF professor Aubrey Jewett examines whether turnout could make Florida competitive despite its Republican advantage.

Channel:

FOX 35 Orlando Story of October 29, 2026Trari Newsroom

Why this story? The video opened at a pace of 36,860 views a day, 23 times a normal first day on this channel (1,574).

Final St. Pete poll reveals new info on voter turnout, Gov. & Senate races

Things we can learn from the video

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0:48The poll puts Donalds ahead of Jolly, 48% to 46%, and Moody ahead of Nixon, 48% to 45%.
3:00The electorate sample favors Republicans by twelve percentage points, making turnout assumptions central to the discussion.
4:00Jewett explains how midterm turnout and the historical losses of a president's party could affect the contests.
6:01The survey says 46% of respondents have already voted; 54% still plan to vote.
6:56A comparison of successive polls shows changes in candidate support and the remaining undecided share.
11:00Jewett describes Florida as Republican while questioning how strongly that advantage will shape these elections.

How much does Florida's Republican advantage tell us about who will actually vote? In FOX 35 Orlando's interview about the final St. Pete Polls survey, that distinction sits at the center of the election discussion.

The survey puts Republican Byron Donalds two points ahead of Democrat David Jolly for governor, with Republican Ashley Moody three points ahead of Democrat Angie Nixon for Senate. Those are leads in a poll, not election results, but they give host Garrett Wymer and UCF political science professor Aubrey Jewett something specific to examine: close-looking contests in a sample that favors Republicans by twelve percentage points.

Jewett points to midterm turnout patterns and the historical tendency for a president's party to lose ground. He also considers Republican registration advantages. His argument is not that Florida has stopped being Republican, but that the label alone cannot settle how competitive an individual election will be.

The interview has drawn about 24,000 views in its first eleven hours, far beyond the station's usual first-day audience for a regular video.

Wymer also brings up a useful distinction in the survey: nearly half of respondents say they have already voted, while the rest still plan to. Later, the pair compare successive polls and examine how the undecided share has changed as Election Day approaches.

Jewett eventually boils the discussion down to a question about degree: "Florida is now a red state, we can say that. It is a Republican state. But then it's like what shade of red?"