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Harry Enten weighs Texas's Democratic lead against polling's past misses

CNN's guide connects James Talarico's polling advantage to Senate control, then examines how another Republican polling underestimate could change the outcome.

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CNN Story of October 31, 2026Trari Newsroom

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Harry Enten's ultimate guide to the Texas Senate midterm race

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0:00Enten puts Texas Senate campaign spending at roughly $545 million, calling it the most expensive Senate contest ever.
6:50Talarico's polling lead has remained consistent despite extensive advertising, Enten explains with Sara Sidner.
12:24Enten argues that voter shifts could limit the Republican House gains anticipated from Texas redistricting.
13:47A Talarico victory substantially improves Democrats' chances of controlling the Senate in the projections Enten presents.
17:52Repeating the polls' 2024 underestimate of Republicans would change which party wins the projected Senate majority.
24:00Enten considers presidential implications, noting that Jimmy Carter was the last Democrat to carry Texas.

Can an enormous advertising bill change a Senate election that barely seems to budge? Harry Enten makes that question central to CNN's Texas guide, describing roughly $545 million in spending while showing James Talarico maintaining an advantage over Republican Ken Paxton.

The Democratic nominee's edge isn't just a single striking poll. Enten shows a consistent lead in his polling aggregate from July through October. A separate six-point advantage prompts a historical comparison: Texas Democrats haven't polled this strongly this late in a Senate election since Lloyd Bentsen's campaign in 1988.

Enten's explanation reaches beyond party loyalty. He highlights Talarico's support among Republicans who don't identify with MAGA, improved Democratic margins among Hispanic voters and independents, and Paxton's poor favorability ratings. With Sara Sidner, he asks whether the advertising has meaningfully shifted the contest. His answer is that the polling has remained largely stuck.

The national stakes arrive midway through the guide. In the projections Enten presents, a Talarico victory would make Democratic control of the Senate substantially more likely. He also argues that shifting Texas House polling could limit the Republican gains anticipated from redistricting.

But a lead is not a result. Enten lays out contrasting Senate maps: one if the election matches the polls, another if they underestimate Republican strength as they did in 2024. That difference changes which party holds the majority.

The closing section extends the question to presidential elections, with Enten eating a banana before considering what losing Texas would mean for a Republican route to the White House. His point is about electoral arithmetic: a state long treated as dependable could become much harder for Republicans to do without.

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