Russia's war economy could complicate peace, Japanese panel warns

The discussion identifies economic dependence on military production, returning soldiers and Kremlin messaging as obstacles beyond a ceasefire agreement.

Channel: Nippon TV News ·

JapanStory of November 15, 2026Trari Newsroom

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欧州への圧力強化ロシアの狙いは▽米中露会談は？交錯する思惑▽戦闘終結で直面「３つの課題」【深層NEWS】11月13日(金)

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1:20Hirose interprets Putin's civilian evacuation proposal as a tactic to assert control and reposition Russian forces.
7:11The program reviews Moscow's renewed demands to restrict NATO expansion and revise European security arrangements.
20:58Kotani assesses possible US-China-Russia talks, including nuclear arms control, AI in nuclear command and Iran.
31:37Hirose identifies three postwar challenges: economic transition, veterans' reintegration and changing Russia's political narrative.
32:51The panel warns that dependence on military production could make ending the war economically destabilizing.
48:58The closing report says Japan is seeking dialogue with Putin over detained Japanese journalists.

Stopping the fighting would leave Moscow with another difficult transition: how to unwind an economy and a political narrative built around war. That is the central warning from Yoko Hirose, a Keio University professor, in Japan's Nippon Television news discussion program Shinsō NEWS.

Hirose identifies three challenges Russia would face after the fighting ends: shifting military-driven production toward a peacetime economy, reintegrating returning veterans, and explaining the outcome to a public repeatedly told that the war is necessary.

Alongside Meikai University professor Tetsuo Kotani, she argues that defense spending has become structurally important to Russia's economy. Abruptly reducing production could cause severe disruption, the panel warns, while dependence on China limits Moscow's options. Hirose raises the possibility that Russia could manufacture fresh external tensions to justify continued military activity. Kotani cautions that expanding the conflict could instead bring Russia closer to ruin.

The discussion reaches those questions through an examination of Vladimir Putin's diplomatic proposals. The broadcast reviews his suggestion to evacuate civilians from Kostiantynivka in eastern Ukraine. Hirose interprets the proposed humanitarian measure as a way to demonstrate Russian control, gain time and reposition forces. Yomiuri Shimbun senior editor Toshiyuki Ito questions the contradiction between offering humanitarian relief and continuing the war.

Kotani argues that President Donald Trump places particular importance on stopping deaths and being able to show progress toward peace. Hirose sees that ambition as one reason Moscow has revived demands for a revised European security framework, including restrictions on NATO expansion to former Soviet republics, despite earlier American rejection.

The panel also examines American intermediaries Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner's engagement with Putin. Kotani says Washington wants European governments involved in future negotiations, while the discussion highlights European concern that talks could produce concessions affecting their security.

Turning to possible talks involving Trump, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping around the APEC summit in China, Kotani identifies nuclear arms control, artificial intelligence in nuclear command and Iran as potential subjects. The panel invokes a possible "New Yalta": major powers deciding arrangements that affect other countries. Hirose argues that simply appearing at the table as an equal would benefit Putin, even without a substantive agreement.

Reports of rising Russian household costs and combat losses accompany the final discussion of veterans, crime and the difficulty of changing wartime messaging. The program closes with reporting that Japan is seeking dialogue with Putin at APEC over detained Japanese journalists, whose release remains unresolved in the broadcast.

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