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Harry Enten's final forecast favors Democrats in both chambers

CNN's analyst gives Democrats a stronger chance in the House than the Senate, where past polling misses remain an important caveat.

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CNN Story of October 31, 2026Trari Newsroom

Why this story? One of the most watched videos since yesterday, with 2,139,939 views.

Midterm elections 2026: Harry Enten's final prediction

Things we can learn from the video

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0:33Enten connects Trump's low net approval and dissatisfaction with Congress to the electoral outlook.
5:53His House forecast gives Democrats a 92% chance of control, projecting 237 Democratic seats and 198 Republican seats.
8:08Unpopular Republican nominees underpin his examination of Senate opportunities in Alaska, Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Iowa.
10:10Past polling underestimates of Republicans in Trump-won states provide a caveat to the Senate outlook.
13:42His Senate model gives Democrats a 71% chance of control, projecting a 52-48 majority.
16:33The governors segment cites Kalshi market odds giving Democrats an 83% chance of holding most governorships.

Control of both chambers of Congress goes to Democrats in Harry Enten's final midterm forecast, but he presents two distinctly different levels of confidence. The House looks much more favorable to the party; the Senate depends on breakthroughs in states Donald Trump won comfortably.

CNN's new upload has drawn about 2.1 million views in its first twelve hours. It takes Enten's election analysis beyond individual battlegrounds to a national forecast covering Congress and governors' races.

Enten builds his argument around Trump's low approval rating, dissatisfaction with Congress and voters' concerns about prices. "Inflation is the name of the game, and Americans simply put do not believe that the President of the United States is measuring up," he says.

His model gives Democrats a 92% chance of winning the House, with a projected majority large enough to extend beyond a handful of close contests. After a cream soda break, he turns to the more difficult Senate calculation: Democrats need to flip deeply Republican presidential territory to regain control.

Alaska, Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Iowa feature in that discussion. Enten points to unpopular Republican nominees, but also addresses a reason for caution: polls have previously underestimated Republicans in states Trump carried. His aggregate Senate model nevertheless gives Democrats a 71% chance of a majority.

The closing "Bonus Slides" broaden the picture again. Enten cites Kalshi market odds favoring Democrats holding most governorships, a different measure from his congressional forecasts. He also examines weak approval ratings for Democratic congressional leaders, including Chuck Schumer, keeping his prediction of electoral gains separate from any claim that the party's leadership is popular.

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