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Sabato shifts 21 election ratings toward Democrats before midterms

CNN pairs the forecaster's explanation of voter discontent with Harry Enten's House analysis and Jake Tapper's guide to reading campaign decisions.

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CNN Story of October 29, 2026Trari Newsroom

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Top election forecaster shifts 21 races in Dems’ direction: Enten reacts

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0:23Sabato attributes the Democratic rating shifts to voter dissatisfaction, prices, Trump-related headlines and early voting trends.
1:52He says Arizona Republicans have failed to adapt to population changes, improving Katie Hobbs's outlook.
3:45Enten puts House seats rated at least leaning Democratic at 223, enough for a majority if realized.
5:45Enten says opposition parties exceeded their late-October leaning-seat totals in every midterm since 2006.
8:26Tapper recommends examining campaign travel and advertising spending alongside polls, without predicting the final result.

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved 21 House, Senate and gubernatorial race ratings toward Democrats with less than a week until Election Day, CNN reports. The revisions signal a more favorable outlook for the party, not a declaration that every affected contest will produce a Democratic victory.

Speaking with Erin Burnett, Sabato points to food and gas prices, headlines involving President Donald Trump and early voting trends. His explanation centers on dissatisfaction that he believes has already hardened into voting decisions, rather than a late electorate still weighing its options.

The University of Virginia Center for Politics director also sees a possible Democratic Senate majority. In Arizona, he attributes the shift toward Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs to Republicans failing to adapt to changes in the state's population.

Harry Enten then examines the House map. CNN's chief data analyst puts the number of seats rated at least leaning Democratic at 223, above a majority. He says that, in each midterm since 2006, the opposition party ultimately won more seats than late-October ratings had placed at least leaning its way. On that historical basis, he calls the current tally "the floor, not the ceiling." That is Enten's interpretation of the ratings, not an election result.

Jake Tapper offers a different way to assess the closing campaign: watch where candidates travel and where campaigns spend their advertising money. He points to Trump's visits to South Carolina and Michigan as decisions worth examining alongside public polling.

Tapper nevertheless stops short of predicting the outcome: "I have no idea what's going to happen. I'm not counting on one result or another."

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