Friedman sees a bigger security role for Australia

The geopolitical forecaster links stronger regional partnerships to Washington's changing role, while predicting economic pressure will bring the Iran war to an end.

Channel: ABC News (Australia) ·

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The Iran war will end ‘fairly soon’, says geopolitical forecaster George Friedman | The Business

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0:00Friedman predicts an early end to the Iran war because both sides face economic pressure, without identifying how.
0:56He identifies Trump's objectives as eliminating Iran's nuclear capability and resolving the oil crisis.
2:00He argues that Washington wants other countries to take more responsibility for global security.
3:41Australia's military relationships with Japan, India and regional partners illustrate that shift, Friedman says.
5:03China needs to move from export dependence towards greater domestic consumption, he argues.
5:53Friedman separates AI's real capabilities from exaggerated promises, arguing that businesses must turn investment into revenue.

Australia's relationships with Japan and India are becoming more important as the United States seeks to share the burden of global security, geopolitical forecaster George Friedman argues.

Speaking from the UBS Australasia conference in Sydney to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), Australia's public broadcaster, Friedman describes a region whose countries are increasingly capable of taking responsibility for their own security. He sees Australia's closer military relationships with regional partners as part of that change, rather than simply a retreat by Washington.

"It does mean that the United States doesn't want to bear the burden," he says. His broader argument is that the distribution of power has changed since the early post-war decades, when American responsibility for security was much greater.

Friedman, founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, also gives the interview its central forecast: the Iran war will end fairly soon because the economic costs are putting pressure on both sides. But he does not explain how an agreement or an end to the fighting would come about, acknowledging that the mechanism is difficult to predict.

He identifies two objectives for President Donald Trump: removing Iran's nuclear capability and ending the oil crisis. His expectation of an early end rests on the parties' need for relief, not on a specific diplomatic breakthrough described in the interview.

Turning to China, Friedman argues that its dependence on exports to the United States limits its position. He also disputes assessments that Russia and China pose threats comparable to those perceived in earlier decades. China's economic challenge, in his account, is to move towards greater domestic consumption as its export-led model matures.

The conversation closes with artificial intelligence and the distinction between a real technology and exaggerated promises. Friedman regards AI's underlying capabilities as substantial, but dismisses the industry's more expansive claims about autonomous systems. Investment is necessary, he says, though the industry's next test is commercial: "stop looking for investment and start looking for revenue."

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